Friday, December 15, 2017

Crude Oil Distribution Reversal And Emini Pullback

Been a busy week with a few distractions which led to a roller coaster of a ride this trading week. Haven't had the time to get recaps posted to the website as I just starting using new market profile charts which I've been adjusting each day.  This may have had me trying to be smarter than the market and more creative in my trades in the beginning of the week. I was able to finalize adjustments and straighten out my thought process and the backside of the trading week improved very well.

Crude Oil +20 Ticks

Today's trading day we noticed the London distribution closed slightly bullish with an evident reversal if it broke through 57.30 to the downside. The opening did print one tick higher but nothing to move the market entered. We notice the upward rejection and low volume, therefore, the short was in play. Short trade was at 57.28 reaching over 30 ticks of profit looking for a 50 tick target. The second attempt of the 57.00 failed and a rebound was quick to move causing the exit for +20 ticks. 

Emini +2 Points

We noticed both overnight distributions inventory was extremely bullish. We thought the 9:30 open would give us a pullback to be able to jump on the first upward reversal. Emini could not even break 2666.00 and it looks like all the informed traders got long at 2668.25. Being preoccupied with the crude oil trade I was late to this parade. Forced to wait for the first pullback showing evident volume exhaustion was an entry at 2672.50 reaching 2678.75. Called the exit much prematurely at 2674.50 for two points as I noticed the rejection at the first big move was reversed at 2675.50. Should have tightened the stop rather than called the exit as it would have produced a much stellar result.  

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Short Trade Higher Rejection Inventory Report

Today was inventory day for crude oil so we usually wait for the outcome of the report to respond to the market. At first, I thought we were going to see the market drop early before the report in which we would probably see an inventory rally.

Not what happened. The market from the US open decided to continue to reject the 57.00 volume node area. The inventory initial move was to the upside only to get rejected at this same price level again.

Both trades were called for 56.83 short, with the first trade basically two minutes after the report was out. As you may know, the volatility and uncertainty are high at this time. Therefore when I saw the spike in bid action I got spooked to call the exit of the first trade for a -1 tick loss.

Immediately after I thought I was wrong as the trade begun to move in favor but it caught another bid only this time it rejected the same price level above to give an even more confident short at 56.83 this time moving +50 ticks.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Another Neutral Distribution 25 Tick Range

The London Session and the US open were trading below term structure had us in the hunt for shorts. At the open evident strong buying volume off the 57.30, I thought later that it would be a great breaking point to be in a short from the structure levels of 57.47/49 above.

Futures Trading Room:

Had three short for a total of -2 Ticks. Trades were basically exited by the lack of the trade materializing. I decided not to trade the afternoon but as I write this post I'm watching the market run higher off the 57.30 bounce. Tomorrow is another day.

Monday, December 4, 2017

Stop Outs Trading Inside The Neutral Distribution

Coming into this morning with the Friday high around 59.00 and the London session not able to trade above 58.00. Was looking for downward movement but the US open bounced off the lower volume node of 57.55 with no big follow through. Therefore I looked for a long trade to potentially begin an upward move, running stops and covering trades.

The first trade was long at 57.76 with a stop loss at 57.63 quickly was rejected at the buy gap and stopped with a loss of -13 Ticks. With the rejection of the buy gap, the next trade presented a short from the rejection of the neutral zone at 57.57. After prolonged time to many failures to move lower I called the stop and got out with a -5 Ticks.

Today's inside neutral morning with two trades both losses for a total loss of -18 Ticks.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Open Trades Wrong Directional Later Accumulation

This morning really thought we would have that up day as the distribution yesterday could not close lower and the London session traded above term structure. We were also trading above the perimeter of the overall distribution of the past week.

Therefore off the open, we were in the hunt for POC support long trades. First trade at 57.77 took off like a bandit only to pull back to the protected stop at +1 Tick. The second trade from off POC support could not get off the ground and was a loss of -10 Ticks.

Took time to re-access and the market dropped through major support areas. Had to wait for the afternoon to look for probable accumulation and we traded the market back to term structure levels from 57.15 for a +1 Tick no follow through and the last trade at 57.12 for +15 Ticks. The market would blast off but would come right back from term structure. Price action was challenging today.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Buyers Mode Support Long After Inventory Report

Firstly, wow what a drop in the NQ this morning! No Trades.

Crude oil opened this morning below term structure but also didn't break lower on 58.75/50. Yesterday held the 58.08 volume nodes twice so stop losses were parked above. Placed a long trade at 58.83 off the buyer support off the POC after the release of the report with a target of a 58.33 and a stop at 58.65.

Trade was just shy of the 50 tick target at 47 ticks and the stop was placed at the +30 ticks on that fast run-up. The target was never reached and was taken out of the trade at +30 ticks. This price movement to the upside in this trade was motivated by running stops. Notice later the market could not sustain these higher prices after the stops were cleared out.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Controlled Crude Oil Missed Opportunity In Nasdaq

Crude Oil:
Obvious price adsorption on any break higher from the open had us short at 57.99 with the stop above the upward volume node.  A heated trade but thankfully it could not clear the 58.08 volume node area which rejected in the afternoon as well. Price did break earlier but could not pass through the POC support which had us protect the trade and exit of a +2 Ticks.

With POC support in the first trade, not allowing lower prices, the behavior and the quick rejection of lower prices had us place a long trade in favor of the POC at 57.90. It traded sideways for a while but did make it up to the 58.08 volume node area but again could not reach higher prices. Protected the trade with a +1 Tick.

First trade in the NQ was at the lower volume node with showed multiple prior rejections. Entered the trade at 6412.50 long and traveled well above 6424. Price reached above 6418 which at that point rotated the stop loss for a +1 Tick. Price reached down touched the stop loss before its move higher.

Second NQ trade was the reversal at the top of the market at 6422.50 with a target at the POC once it showed that it could not pass. Took profit at 6418.50 The NQ made a reversal at the POC and allowed us to take the long trade to the upside at 6420. Looking for a new high but failed which we exited the trade at 6425.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Distribution Break Stop Out Setup POC Shift Long

At the 58.13 Volume Node, we looked for a bounce back to the upside when buyers showed support after the POC shift. First trade at 58.21 was stopped out with downward momentum as supply entered the market on the break of the low of the overnight distribution.

Price found support between the 57.60 Volume Nodes and prior evident supply was exhausted. POC shift again in support of the buyers setup the 57.77 long.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Node Support Breakout Over Prior Distributions

Before the 9:00am opening, we identified the market profile node support. The high volume open gave the buying market the supply it needed. Price could not break lower and we watched the high volume bias above the mode.

Entered the trade at 56.61 with a initial stop loss at 56.44 and a target at 57.11 Took +45 ticks on the trade as it hesitated below the 50 tick target at 57.11. Price later went well through the target level.

Monday, November 20, 2017

POC Delivers A Reversal At 56.12

London session produced an 80+ tick move to the downside and the neutral zone called for an early short but did not want to sell the low of the market. Price reached prior distributions and bounced into Friday's rally point of 55.95.

Once the price was able to break above POC the buying market gained strength and a noticeable behavior change was evident. Trade entry was at 56.12 with a rotation target at 56.62. 56.35 node slowed the market down as time ran out. Took 25 ticks in the trade.